Lately I’ve been feeling like Leonardo DiCaprio’s character in the Netflix movie Don’t Look Up. People read what I have to say, they agree, and yet the world continues to descend into disaster.
A poignant meme is now circulating Ukraine’s social media:
“World War Three has already started. On one side we have Russia against the civilized world, and on the other Ukraine, defending the civilized world.”
The civilized world has aided Ukraine militarily, economically, diplomatically… We are grateful.
But the civilized world refuses to engage Russia directly because its leaders fear catastrophe. Apparently, a no-fly zone over Ukraine might provoke Putin into thermonuclear war.
This is the logic of succumbing to terrorism. The world fears nuclear war. This fear justifies inaction. Inaction allows the terrorist in the Kremlin to gain more hostages, to spread more fear.
The longer one tolerates a terrorist, the more harm he does. Inevitably, he must be confronted.
“World War Three has already started. On one side we have Russia against the civilized world, and on the other Ukraine, defending the civilized world.”
Indeed, the confrontation is imminent. As former Ukrainian ambassador to the US Валерій Чалий (Valeriy Chaly) pointed out yesterday, throughout the conflict in Ukraine (since 2014) Putin has consistently engaged in “escalation commitment”:
He offset the negative consequences of his annexation of Crimea (sanctions) by escalating in the Donbas. Failure to bring Ukraine to its knees through attrition in a local war in the Donbas was compensated by invasion of all of Ukraine. Failure in Ukraine will inevitably be followed by escalation on a global scale: by testing NATO’s resolve in the Baltic countries or elsewhere. Then what?
Machiavelli famously wrote: “There is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage of your enemy.”
Sadly, although losing on the ground in Ukraine (tragically for Russian soldiers), Putin seems to be winning in his war with the civilized world (for the moment, holding it hostage).
Last night Russian tanks and aircraft launched an attack on the largest nuclear power facility in Europe in the southern Ukrainian town of Energodar (Zaporizhzhia oblast). One of the reactors suffered a direct hit, but so far remains unpenetrated.
Meanwhile Western leaders continue to believe: If we ignore impending disaster maybe it won’t happen…
“Don’t look up!”
* Thoughts from Kyiv is a series of flash essays by Mychailo Wynnyckyj from February 2022
