If everybody has already expressed their ideas about negotiations, may I do it now? I have been waiting for quite a long period for my turn to come.

I would like to take a citation from a famous classic of modern Ukrainian literature Les’ Podervianskyi as an epigraph to my post: “I do not believe in the power of word, but I believe in the power of kicking one’s ass!”

We are dealing with the enemy who has not cared for any agreements and has been using all the agreements in the latrines. The history of this issue can be studied starting with the Pereyaslav Agreement and up to the Budapest Memorandum. Herman Pirchner in his book “Post Putin” (I really advise you to read it!) gives the data of the analysis made by the American Foreign Policy Council as of 2018, which shows that out of 58 key international agreements signed by the RF, it has breached 36.

The RF is the legal successor of the USSR in international relations and is following a simple principle: only power matters, while agreements are good for nothing, they are just an element of self-comfort for weak people. (By the way, all talks about “reduced intensity of military actions”, as you understand, have quickly turned out to be deceitful, while “withdrawal” — just regrouping. Do not believe the RF’s diplomats. Please.)

And one more thing: the empire always comes back to deal a blow on the back. The Empire strikes back. The first Russian-Chechen war finished with Khasavyurt Accord for the empire to accumulate some power for the Second Russian-Chechen war. (Do not trust any agreements with the RF. Ever. Please)

That is why, dear friends and enemies, please, bear this in mind, not to have to repeat this again in several days: the core negotiation process is the one held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the core negotiator on our side are the unbeatable warriors of all types and sorts of troops. And they are shaping up the agenda for all the other negotiation platforms. Diplomacy is important, but it performs the function of an auxiliary type of troops, like cover from the air (the same as cyber army, if you allow for my metaphor, covering the front from under the ground).

So what has happened in Istanbul then? In terms of negotiations?

First of all, let me mention that real negotiation starts when the parties have some points of intersection in their outlined standpoints. For example, you are bargaining for something in the Turkish market and are ready to pay 100 Euros, while the seller wants to get 10,000 Euros. These are already negotiations, you have a point of intersection since theoretically you are ready to buy, while he is ready to sell, and it’s only the matter of price. But if you want to buy his house, and he is ready to sell only the carpet, there will be no negotiations, no matter how much tea you drink together.

Ukrainian standpoint at the negotiations starts with unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops. Russian position at the negotiations starts with unconditional refusal to withdraw its troops. So, here we are, there’s nothing to speak about. The fate of ORDLO (breakaway areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions), Crimea, NATO and the planet of Mars can be discussed as much as you wish, but it is pointless — the positions of the parties do not have any point of contact or intersection.

Let me remind you of the words of our great compatriot Golda Meir: “We intend to remain alive. Our neighbors want to see us dead. This is not a question that leaves much room for compromise”.

Why all this then?

The negotiations are being watched. The RF wants to produce the impression on the West that it is ready for negotiations, just to suspend imposition of sanctions as well as to win time, to gather the operational reserve, re-group, transfer the troops to the areas of the key future attacks. Ukraine should also participate in the negotiation process not to be blamed for refusing to hold negotiations. And the West insists on the negotiations since it wants all this to stop for the world to get back to its previous lifestyle, business as usual (spoiler: that will not happen anyway).

But there are two more audiences watching the negotiations — internal Russian and internal Ukrainian ones. Since that is all happening not in the 20th, but in the 21st century, in the post-modern epoch, when the second main front is in the conscience of citizens of the countries at war (and not at war).

The response of the Russian society to negotiations makes me filled with joy. They consider any negotiations to be a path for weak men, for them to start a negotiation means to publicly recognize the weakness of their country. And that means that either their leader is weak and should be replaced (just recall: in the “red” management culture a leader is allowed to make a mistake only once), or he has been deceived (so, you need to find and liquidate the traitors). Now it is all in flames. Burn bright.

The response of the Ukrainian society to the negotiations makes me sad. Just several days ago, in our scenario analysis, we envisaged a similar situation and were trying to prevent it. Unfortunately, that did not happen.

Educated and smart people, first of all, have made logical mistakes taught not to be made in the first year of studies. Secondly, we have forgotten about the Constitution [of Ukraine]. When I read that “Podolyak has finally drained the Crimea”, I get a number of questions, the first of which is as follows: can Podolyak really drain the Crimea? Can an international treaty come into effect if it is concluded not in compliance with the constitutional procedure? Can the leaders of the Ukrainian state do something that would be absolutely unacceptable for most citizens?

Any results of negotiations must be accepted by the higher authorities of the country. In the RF this is about Putin — he is reported about everything, and he either agrees, or not. In Ukraine that is the Ukrainian people. Thank God, these are not just the words in the Constitution, but a fact of life.

But.

This is the war of systems, and the first to “start shattering” loses. If the Russian society is the first to start shattering — they have lost (spoiler: it will happen so). Our task is not to shatter. They will keep swaying us. And we will be swaying them. Those who are the first to go dizzy lose. Your primary contribution to our victory is not to allow you to sway you.

Pay attention to the fact that I am not declaring trust in our negotiators or political leaders. I do not trust any personalia (but for friends). Victory is ensured not by personalia, but by institutions. I trust the Armed Forces [of Ukraine] that determine the agenda of negotiations, and the Constitution of Ukraine that determines the procedure of fixing their results.

Overwhelming response to negotiations is a part of stress caused by transition to slow-time mode. Therefore, if you want to shout “we are drained!” or “treason!”, first you need to breathe out and have a look at the sky, and then recall that the main negotiator is the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the situation at that main negotiation is changing from day to day.

An important battlefield is conscience, and in it each and everyone is responsible for the protection of their small fragment, for the enemy’s foot not to trample it.

Author: Valerii Pekar, Ukrainian entrepreneur, mentor, teacher of numerous business schools, author, public intellectual

Translator: Halyna Pekhnyk

Illustrator: Maksym Palenko

Content Editor: Maryna Korchaka

Program Directors: Julia Ovcharenko and Demyan Om Dyakiv Slavitski