Much going on at the moment:
— residential districts of Kharkiv and Chernihiv under Grad attack
— significant areas of southern Ukraine occupied by Russians, but local residents continue resistance and civil disobedience
— Kyiv is defiant and (in my opinion) invincible.
The above conditions make the peace talks launched today in Belarus highly problematic. The Russian delegation will try to gain concessions (or even capitulation) from the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians will tell the “Russian ship” exactly where to go. Even if a cease fire is agreed, there is no chance that it will hold. Putin will continue to escalate.
Given the nuclear threat voiced by the Russian president yesterday, escalation is scary not just for Ukraine, but for the world. Hopes for a Kremlin coup or mass demonstrations in Moscow (in my opinion) are just that — hopes. This war is going to get much worse before it gets any better.
As to the eventual outcome for Ukraine, I remain highly optimistic. I simply cannot imagine Ukrainians agreeing to Russian occupation, and so even if the country is overrun by tanks and equipment, and even if supply lines are cut, the Russians will be faced with an unprecedented insurgency that will have the support of the entire civilized world. We will win this war! The question now is, how many lives will be lost in the process?
The sad part of this story is that Putin started this war because he genuinely came to believe his own propaganda. While the West believed Russia could be deterred with sanctions or that the discourse on NATO and geopolitics was genuine, Putin was always very candid. He stated outright that in his mind Ukraine is an artificial country with no separate national identity and no right to exist. Now ordinary Russian soldiers and valiant Ukrainian defenders (i.e. the entire population) are paying the ultimate price.
The sad part of this story is that Putin started this war because he genuinely came to believe his own propaganda.
According to the latest poll approval ratings for President Zelensky have sky-rocketed above 90%. Meanwhile the Russian rouble has become junk currency, and even Switzerland (!) has declared that it cannot remain neutral in this conflict.
The Kremlin’s initial overconfidence and total miscalculations have now become public. The state-owned RIA-Novosti website mistakenly published an article at 8:00 am on Feb 26 proclaiming Russia’s victory over Ukraine (2 days after the start of invasion). Its author Pyotr Akopov proclaimed the establishment of a “new world” and the “final solution of the Ukrainian question” (echoing another “final solution” author). The article was immediately taken down after publication, but was saved by Google cache — link provided in the first comment to this post.
Obviously Putin was not expecting the Ukrainians to resist. Indeed, reports of Russian troops currently on Ukrainian territory being surprised that they are not being met with open-arms are commonplace. They too believed the official Kremlin propaganda that Ukrainians seek liberation by Russia. That said, it may not stop them in the short term.
As the excellent operational publications by military analyst Tom Cooper show (please follow him on FB — don’t request friendship unless you know him personally), the Russians may not be advancing as fast as they had planned, but they are nevertheless advancing. The strategic plan seems to be to isolate Ukraine’s main fighting force on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro river. Key strategic targets for this to happen are Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Cherkasy.
This means the advance on Kyiv may in fact slow during the coming days. Russian forces are massing on the territory that they have already wedged into from the north in preparation for a final push on the capital, but that may not happen before the south is fully secured. Obviously, the Russians will be met with fierce resistance in Kyiv from both the Armed Forces and civilians. I cannot imagine any other way for them to control Kyiv than mass genocide of the city’s population.
The primary and immediate threat to Ukraine (and to the world!) continues to come from the air: Iskander and Buratino missiles and aerial bombardment. Apparently a no-fly zone is seriously being considered in western capitals, but if it only covers right-bank Ukraine (west of the Dnipro), that will be a sell-out. Please continue the pressure on your governments dear friends!
* Thoughts from Kyiv is a series of flash essays by Mychailo Wynnyckyj from February 2022
Author: Mychailo Wynnyckyj, Social Scientist, Public Intellectual. Academic Development Officer, Professor at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
Illustration: Olga Protasova, plasticine panel fragment
Content Editor: Maryna Korchaka
Programme Directors: Julia Ovcharenko and Demyan Om Dyakiv Slavitski
If you think of yourself as a poet or a poetess and you are considering taking this path seriously, most likely sooner or later you will ask yourself this question: what can I do for poetry?
Few weeks ago (mid January it was)* I took part in a writer’s conference with other international writers in Kolkata, India. It was a panel discussion addressing the topic of “Writing for the post-pandemic world”.
The morning begins with a final farewell to a soldier in our yard. He died in the war. A message about this appeared in the neighbor chat yesterday, indicating the building number and the entrance. High-rise buildings, just like low-rise ones, can’t avoid loss in wartime. There are more than 800 apartments in our building. Is there at least one unaffected by the war?
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